Fall TV Season Predictions

With tonight’s season premiere of Sons of Anarchy, the traditional television season officially kicks off, and even though it will be a few more weeks become the networks catch up, now seems like a good time to lay out some of my predictions for the upcoming fall session of television. Looking over the television landscape of both new and returning shows, it is hard not to notice trends among the shows, trends that will invariably be part of the conversation on this blog and quite possibly attain notice from other critics as well. Though there is always room for surprises, the following predications are based on a mixture of historical evidence and intuition, and it seems likely that they will be some of the biggest issues critics deal with over the next several months.

This will be a season of change. Many shows will attempt in one way or another to shake up the formula of their past seasons, especially as some attempt to seek refuge from the criticisms of the past. SOA has decided to eschew the ill-received “grand mythology” angle from season three, and instead return to the more small-scale, personal stories that made it such a critical hit in the first place.

Glee, which has decided to lessen the amount of songs it covers and lay off using Gwyneth Paltrow big name stars in order to focus on story, is adding six new writers to break up the monotony of Murphy/Brennan/Fulchak, and will be “graduating” (but not necessarily writing out) three characters at the end of the season, has the biggest changes coming. Whether these changes will result in some renewed success or complete and utter failure is still a matter of speculation, but it certainly will be interesting to watch.

Other shows may not be so interested in changing their basic format, but will find ways to change up the stories that they tell. Given the many threads left hanging in “Lil’ Sebastian” and the dynamic altering reveal of “For a Few Paintballs More", expect both Park and Recreation and Community to engage in a bit more serialized storytelling than they have in the past.

Fringe, which is still reeling from the ridiculous last minute plot twist of its finale, will most likely spend it first few episodes back first spinning in the new status quo, before returning us to the old one with another ridiculous plot twist. The Office will get some new mileage out of playing around with who’s actually going to be the new boss – as well as what this means for the office dynamic – before returning to the sub-par comedy that’s unfortunately its new standard. Chuck will hopefully fix its pacing one again, this time to one befitting its final 13 episode run. The Walking Dead should kick into a new gear now that it’s telling more long form storytelling, perhaps twice over given the recent season split.

But really, the television landscape will look about the same on the whole. Let’s face it, though some shows are changing, most in an attempt to improve themselves, many are content to stay right where they are. How I Met Mother still has two more seasons in which to tease out the mystery of who the mother is and/or continue telling head-shakingly non-sensical stories while teasing us with the occasionally powerful episode. And don’t expect Modern Family – which is still happy with its 2010 Emmy win, thankyouverymuch – to feel any pressure to stop relying on those overly predictable stories that having been causing many critics headaches, even as everybody involved knows they can do so much better. SNL will continue its brand of middling comedy, much to everyone’s ambivalence.

Still other comedies, such as It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia and Archer, will also continue their particular brand of comedy, and while it will continue to draw critical praise, they will fail to draw any new viewers.

And in addition to the likely reverts of Fringe and The Office, don’t expect the serialized elements of P&R and Community to last too long, as the showrunners will hopefully pull out before running those stories into the ground. Glee, which is setting itself up for possible failure, could quite easily revert to the old formula in the second half of the season if fan reaction is negative. And though SOA is getting rid of the rightly maligned mythology, it’s still retreating to the old formula, a move that is already drawing criticism, some light and some heavy.

And none of this includes the other new shows that are simply rehashing of things that we’ve seen before from CBS procedurals like Unforgettable or gender-stereotype-perpetuating comedies like NBC’s Whitney or ABC’s Last Man Standing, which will please most of America and make those with more selective taste bang their heads against a wall or the table, whichever is closer. And don’t forget about ABC’s reboot of Charlie’s Angles…or on second thought, maybe you should.

There are going to be some disappointments. Hope is actually high for network television for the first times in years, based mostly on the pedigree of the parties involved. Sarah Michelle Gellar is returning to television in Ringer, while universally adored Zooey Deschanel will star in the new comedy The New Girl, while Will Arnett gets another chance to do television comedy with Up All Night. David Hornsby of Sunny fame is bringing us the new comedy How to Be a Gentleman, while the new FOX animated show Allen Gregory comes from the mind Jonah Hill. Steven Spielberg will be producing his second new show of the year with Terra Nova, and AMC will once again try to his the critical jackpot with Hell on Wheels. (Okay, so that last one isn’t on network, but you get my point, and for the sake of argument, it needed to be included.)

Yet as much promise as there is here amongst all the talent, the inescapable fact remains that not all of these can succeed. Some may be brought down by network intervention (Gentleman and Allen Gregory), while other simply won’t outlive their premises (Ringer and New Girl). Terra Nova and Hell on Wheels carry with them the baggage of the past; Spielberg’s last outing, Falling Skies, failed to live up to expectations, and people still haven’t forgiven AMC for the shitty nature of The Killing. As for Will Arnett… well, he hasn’t really done much good since Arrested Development, has he? (Who remembers Running Wilde?)

It is of course still possible that some of these shows could maintain their artistic integrity, but advanced press on shows like Ringer and Hell on Wheels isn’t good,  while other shows seems as if a good idea has already be diluted down by the network machine. It would probably be for the best if you don’t fall in love with any of these shows right away, but in case you do, best prepare yourself for heartbreak.  

The clones will create division. For reasons unknown, some networks seem to think that copying cable networks, what with their critical praise and supremely low ratings, would somehow be a good business decision. Thus we end up with Mad Men clones like NBC’s The Playboy Club and ABC’s Pan Am, which look primed to give viewers yet another glance at the sexy, sexy world of the 1960s. Network target audiences won’t get it, critics will deplore the shows, and NBC will once again have dug an even deeper grave for itself. (ABC, which is ending Desperate Housewives, one of its few remaining commercial hits, this year, isn’t in quite dire straits yet, but with nothing good on the horizon, it very well could be.)

Meanwhile, every single network seems to have picked up a show with some fantasy element to it, with ABC’s Once Upon a Time, the CW’s The Secret Circle, and NBC’s Grimm all premiering this fall, and more slated for the spring. While the degree to which these shows could be artistic success or failures is variable, expect audiences to eventually be turned off by the glut, and network executives to declare the supernatural angle dead, until Joss Whedon comes up with another bright idea for a television show.

Happy New TV Season, ya’ll!