2011 Emmy Nominations Breakdown

Another year, another slew of disappointments. That’s usually how it goes, right? While this year is not as egregious as some of the errors of years past, but as Myles McNutt points out, there’s always some disappointment to go along. Among the positive aspects, FX finally picked up some nods for a show other than Damages, with 2 nods for Louie and 3 nods for Justified. (Sadly, there’s nothing for Sons of Anarchy.) As for what got snubbed…well’s that a much bigger pile. (Seriously, you’re going to get sick of me talking about how much Community and Terriers got snubbed this year.)

For each category, I will offer my suggestions for who I think should have been nominated instead (as well as who they should replace), as well as who I think should and will win from the list of nominees. As need, I will also throw in a little analysis of the nominee list as a whole.

Please note that since I have not seen enough of them, I am forgoing the various Movie+Miniseries categories, and because I’m not a fan, I’m similarly skipping all talk of reality/competition/non-fiction categories. You can find a full list here.

Comedy :

Series

The Big Bang Theory
Glee
Modern Family
The Office
Parks & Recreation
30 Rock

Substitutions: Community should be in place of Glee, which really shouldn’t be in this category in the first place, and Cougar Town should really stand in for BBT. Knowing that The Office is only in the category because it’s always is in the category irks me to no end, and while it shouldn’t have made it in this season considering that the only good episodes were those that concerned with Steve Carell’s departure, but I’m not sure there’s anything better to take its place. (Raising Hope, maybe? Or how about It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia?)

Who Should Win: Parks & Recreation, hands down.

Who Will Win: Modern Family, if only because it won last year, and Emmy voters love them some repeat winners.

Lead Actor

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Louis C.K., Louie
Steve Carell, The Office
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Even though Louie C.K. says he’s not that good of an actor – and I tend to agree – he so owns his role on Louie, and that goes beyond the fact that he’s basically playing himself. C.K. serves as the always reliable center of the show, and though such an important (though understated) role likely won’t get more than an Emmy nod, it’s nice that ATAS has started to nominate FX shows that aren’t Damages.

Substitutions: Joel McHale for Johnny Galecki. It’s like these people never saw “Intermediate Documentary Filmmaking.”

Who Should Win: For giving his best performance on the show, Steve Carell, assuming he submits “Goodbye, Micheal” as his Emmy tape. (And why shouldn’t he?)

Who Will Win: It’s a tough one. Even though Steve Carell has the “Exit Emmy” on his side, voters love when somebody plays multiple roles (as Alec Baldwin did this year in “100”), and don’t count out Jim Parsons for a repeat win. It’s a three-way tie, is what I’m saying

Lead Actress

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Laura Linney, The Big C
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope
Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation

And thus begins the onslaught of Showtime “comedies”.

Substitutions: Kaley Cuoco for one of the Showtime ladies, or maybe Melissa McCarthy? I dunno. This was kind of a weak field this year, as it usually is.

Who Should Win: Amy Phoehler, who could probably submit just about any episode she wanted to.

Who Will Win: Best to count on a repeat win for Edie Falco. Man, ATAS can’t just let The Sopranos go, can they?

Dark Horse: Martha Plimpton is the second best thing about Raising Hope, and she's been around TV for quite a few years.

Supporting Actor

Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Chris Colfer, Glee
Jon Cryer, Two And A Half Men
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

It’s one of those tricky, frustrating, and ultimately unfair categories where TWO-THIRDS of the actors are all from the same show, especially considering that Ed O’Neil for some reason downgraded himself to “Supporting” this go around.

Substitutions: Garret Dillahunt (Raising Hope) for Jon Cryer. Seriously, he’s like the best thing on that show. And throw out a couple of those MF guys (I don’t really care who) so that both Donald Glover and Danny Pudi can get noticed for their fine work in Community. (Or put them on a joint ticket, so they can really kickass. I don’t think they would mind sharing an Emmy.) Take and third MF actor, throw him out, and place Nick Offerman in for playing Ron Fucking Swanson.  Which of course leaves no room for Neil Patrick Harris. Man, this field is cracked.

Who Should Win: Chris Colfer, who still might still win considering that Golden Globe, but…

Who Will Win:…anybody from Modern Family probably has a better chance, considering how much Emmy voters seem to love that show. Hopefully this will go to Ty Burrell, but don’t count out a repeat win for Stonestreet. He gives the kind of big, flashy performance voters love, even if both he and Ferguson were required to reach offensive levels of flamboyancy multiple times this season.

Supporting Actress

Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Jane Lynch, Glee
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Betty White, Hot In Cleveland
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live

Much like it is for Lead Actress in a Comedy, this is a fairly week field, mostly because most writers don’t seem to know how to write for women.

Substitutions: Alison Brie (Community) for Jane Krakowski

Who Should Win: Sofia Vergara, who continues to move past her ethnicity and gives as great of a performance (if not better) than any ol’ white girl.

Who Will Win: It’s a tie between Jane Lynch, who won last year, and Betty White, who has a whole lotta legacy on her side. (Yes, that’s a stupid reason for someone to win, but it’s how it goes.)

Guest Actor

Will Arnett, 30 Rock
Matt Damon, 30 Rock
Idris Elba, The Big C
Zach Galifianakis, Saturday Night Live
Nathan Lane, Modern Family
Justin Timberlake, Saturday Night Live

Substitutions: Apart from Idris Elba submitting for a show that is certainly not a comedy, this looks like as solid list as one could make, but then again, keeping track of all the guest stars in hard to do, so I might be missing someone. (Though what ever happened to that sure-fire nod for John Lithgow for How I Met Your Mother?)

Who Should Win: Galifianakis, for giving the best SNL monologue in years.

Who Will Win: Nathan Lane. He’s a (technically) movie star, and he gave an broad performance, two things Emmy voters love.

Guest Actress

Elizabeth Banks, 30 Rock
Kristin Chenoweth, Glee
Tina Fey, Saturday Night Live
Dot-Marie Jones, Glee
Cloris Leachman, Raising Hope
Gwyneth Paltrow, Glee

Substitutions: Looks about as same as the Guest Actor list did, though much weaker

Who Should & Will Win: Gwyneth Paltrow. I wasn’t exactly won over by her appearance, but it’s not like there’s a whole lot of strong contenders in this field, and most people just seem to love her. (I would totally be fine in Tina Fey won, because even though I didn’t really like her SNL episode, that was more a writing problem than an acting problem.)

Directing

How I Met Your Mother - "Subway Wars," Pamela Fryman
Modern Family - "Halloween," Michael Alan Spiller
Modern Family - "See You Next Fall," Steve Levitan
Modern Family - "Slow Down Your Neighbors," Gail Mancuso
30 Rock - "Live Show," Beth McCarthy-Miller

Substitutions: Once again we have the problem of too many representations of Modern Family, especially when none of these episodes felt all that different from one another. (Though I found “Slow Down Your Neighbors” to be the best.) I’d have to imagine Louis C.K. submitted his name, and he definitely should have made this list.

Who Should & Will Win: Miller for 30-Rock’s live show. Not only was is a radical departure from the show’s usual format (thus signifying an actual directorial challenge), but it’s a throwback to the old live shows of the four-camera sitcoms, and if there’s one thing Emmy voters still love, it’s four-camera sitcoms.

Writing

Episodes - "Episode 107," David Crane and Jeffrey Klarik
Louie - "Poker/Divorce," Louis C.K.
Modern Family - "Caught In The Act," Steve Levitan and Jeffrey Richman
The Office - "Good-Bye Michael," Greg Daniels
30 Rock - "Reaganing," Matt Hubbard

Substitutions: Just about anything from Community and Parks& Recreation should be on this list, though I can’t really think what to throw out. Episodes should go, definitely, but I’d have a hard time deciding whether to nix MF or 30 Rock, as those were both good episodes for the series.

Who Should & Will Win: Though I am a bit remiss to throw Louie under the bus, I pick “Good-Bye Michael”, for being the best, most moving episode of The Office ever.

Drama:

Series

Boardwalk Empire
Dexter
Friday Night Lights
Game Of Thrones
The Good Wife
Mad Men

Apart from continued inclusion of Dexter, this a pretty good list. It’s also nice to see FNL finally get some recognition (following up on the Best Actor and Actress nods last year), but please be aware that it’s just an Exit Emmy Nod, and shows rarely win those.

Substitutions: Dexter’s Out, Terriers is in.

Who Should & Will Win: Even though Boardwalk Empire and Game of Thrones, are both new, flashy, quality (in the case of GoT, really good), HBO show, I can’t see either of them upsetting Mad Men’s reign, especially not after a season with its strongest episodes to date.

Lead Actor

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Hugh Laurie, House
Timothy Olyphant, Justified

Substitutions: Hugh Laurie’s been playing the same thing for the past seven seasons. Let’s face it, he’s never going to win. Donal Logue should be in this category, as he was able to play Hank Dalworth for the anti-hero that we was while still remaining loveable to the audience, and that took some major skill. It was the role that Logue was born to play, and damn if he didn’t knock it out of the park.

Who Should Win: Now that Bryan Cranston’s out of the field for a year, it should be Jon Hamm’s turn to get that Emmy he’s been earning over the past four years. Certainly submitting “The Suitcase” would clinch it for him if it weren’t for…

Who Will Win:...Steve Buscemi. He’s a movie start. And he already won a Golden Globe and a SAG award for the role. Emmy voters will eat that shit up.

Dark Horse: Hall’s performance in Dexter’s season premiere was excellent. Watch for an upset.

Lead Actress

Kathy Bates, Harry's Law
Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
Mireille Enos, The Killing
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Substitutions: In what is mostly a sad commentary on the state of Women’s roles in TV today, it’s a fairly week field this year. But anyways....throw out Kathy Bates, put in Lauren Graham. Take out Mariska Hargitay, put in  Anna Torv. Oh yeah, that's more like it...

Who Should Win: Moss, who much like Hamm, should submit “The Suitcase.”

Who Will Win: Margulies may have gotten usurped last year, but by this time her role must have grown on the voters.

Dark Horse: Maybe the Emmys will finally award Britton for her hard work on FNL, but I doubt it.

Supporting Actor

Andre Braugher, Men Of A Certain Age
Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Peter Dinklage, Game Of Thrones
Walton Goggins, Justified
John Slattery, Mad Men

The real question for this category is whether or not this means that Men of a Certain Age gets renewed. As much as I would like it, this is a tough field, and Braugher isn’t going to win. Is a role that’s too funny in a drama that doesn’t’ fit Emmy standards.

Substitutions: Throw one of The Good Wife candidates out. Put in Michael-Raymond James for Terriers.

Who Should & Will Win: Walton Goggins, for turning a role that could have been scenery chewing into art. Or if you prefer, you could see it as cosmic justice for getting snubbed for his work on The Shield.

Dark Horse: Peter Dinklage. Don’t laugh. He’s fantastic in the role, and you never know how many voters have seen The Station Agent.

Supporting Actress

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Michelle Forbes, The Killing
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire
Margo Martindale, Justified
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife

Substitutions:  Throw out Mitchell Forbes, instill Laura Allen in her place. Her role in Terriers as Britt’s girlfriend could have broken-down into offensive nag category, but she somehow exuded a mesmerizing brightness.

Who Should Win: Margo Martindale. Why? Three words: Whoop. Dee. Doo.

Who Will Win: Look for Panjabi to win again, especially after she had an episode where she had an affair with a married man. That’s Emmy bait right there.

Dark Horse: Kelly MacDonanld.

Guest Actor

Beau Bridges, Brothers & Sisters
Jeremy Davies, Justified
Bruce Dern, Big Love
Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife
Paul McCrane, Harry's Law
Robert Morse, Mad Men

Substitutions: Once again, guest categories are a mess

Who Should & Will Win: Fox, people love him, and from what I heard, he did good work this season.

Dark Horse: Maybe it’s finally Robert Morse’s time to win?

Guest Actress

Cara Buono, Mad Men
Joan Cusack, Shameless
Loretta Devine, Grey's Anatomy
Randee Heller, Mad Men
Mary McDonnell, The Closer
Julia Stiles, Dexter

Substitutions: Ditto.

Who Should/Will Win: I honestly have no clue, but that’s mostly because I’m unfamiliar with three of these roles. I liked Stiles’ character on Dexter, but that was more for what she represented, not really her acting ability. I’m gonna go with Buono, because her character made the biggest critical splash out of the six.

Dark Horse: Randee Heller, but only if voters are old enough and crotchety enough to identify with Miss Blankenship   

Directing

Boardwalk Empire - "Anastasia," Jeremy Podeswa
Boardwalk Empire - "Boardwalk Empire (Pilot)," Martin Scorsese
The Borgias - "The Poisoned Chalice/The Assassin," Neil Jordan
Game Of Thrones - "Winter Is Coming (Pilot)," Tim Van Patten
The Killing - "Pilot," Patty Jenkins

In bid to legitimize the shitty ending of the season, AMC has submitted The Killing's pilot. It was a good episode to be sure, but I hope nobody takes this a proof that the show is actually any good.

Substitutions: What? No directing nods for Mad Men?

Who Should & Will Win: Scorese. Not only is he a big flash Hollywood name, but BE was never as good as it was in the first episode.

Writing

Friday Night Lights - "Always," Jason Katims
Game Of Thrones - "Baelor," David Benioff and D.B. Weiss
The Killing - "Pilot," Veena Sud
Mad Men - "Blowing Smoke," Andre Jacquemetton and Maria Jacquemetton
Mad Men - "The Suitcase," Matthew Weiner

What holds for direction of The Killing's pilot holds true here as well.

Substitutions: Umm….Where the fuck is Terriers? It’s not like Mad Men needs both those slots.

Who Should & Will Win: “The Suitcase”. Best. Mad Men. Episode. Ever.

Dark Horse: “Baelor” was one of the best GoT episodes aired this spring, so don’t be surprised if voters give them the writing award to make up for them not winning Best Series.

Variety, Music, or Comedy Series

The Colbert Report
Conan
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
Late Night With Jimmy Fallon
Real Time With Bill Maher
Saturday Night Live

Writing

The Colbert Report
Conan
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
Late Night With Jimmy Fallon
Saturday Night Live

Substitutions: None. This is a fairly light field

Who Should & Will Win: Daily Show for best Series, Colbert for best writing. That’s just the way these things go, as they should.

Dark Horse: Though he failed to win last year’s award for his brief stint on the Tonight Show, the Emmys voters very well could decided that Conan’s earned some ATAS love.

Animated Program

The Cleveland Show, "Murray Christmas"
Futurama, "The Late Philip J Fry"
Robot Chicken, "Star Wars Episode III"
The Simpsons, "Angry Dad"
South Park, "Crack Baby Athletic Association"

Substitutions: Substitute just about any episode of Archer for anything on this list that’s not “The Late Philip J Fry” or “Crack Baby Athletic Association”. Other than light, this is a fairly light field of competitors, and Emmy voters usually have to scrape the bottom of the barrel in order to get six nominees.

Who Should & Will Win: Futurama.